U.S. Durum Wheat Production Forecast to Witness Massive Drop from 2016

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Genetically modified wheat has been discovered growing in a field in Oregon. GMO wheat is not approved for sale in the U.S. Above, a wheat field in Arkansas.

In the latest 12 Crop Production Report released recently, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (U.S.D.A) has projected a massive reduction in the production of durum wheat, other spring wheat that durum wheat, and winter wheat in 2017 as compared to 2016. The report states that the production of durum will be down 45% as compared to 2016, production of other varieties of spring wheat down 21%, and the production of winter wheat down 23%.

The production of durum wheat was projected to be 57,495,000 bus in 2017, a vast reduction from the 104,116,000 bus in 2016, based on an estimated yield of 30.9 bus per acre, down 13.1 bus, across a harvested area of 1.86 mn acres, down 21% as compared to 2016. If the forecast is realized, the production of durum wheat will be the lowest since 2014. On a whole, the production of all varieties of wheat in the country was forecast to be less 24% than the production value in 2016.

The U.S.D.A. report forecasts that considering all varieties of wheat, only the production of durum wheat was below the average trade expectation. Winter wheat futures of Chicago and Kansas City were down according to the report while the winter wheat futures of Minneapolis increased to multi-year highs owing to the drought in several key spring wheat production areas of South and North Dakota and Montana.

Production of oats was projected to be down 17% as compared to 2016, which would, if realized, bring down the production value to the second-lowest in records in 1866 after the production value in 2011.

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